Comprehensive Sex-Stratified Genetic Analysis of 28 Blood Biomarkers and Depression Reveals a Significant Association between Depression and Low Levels of Total Protein in Females.

Introduction: Major depression (MD) is more common amongst women than men, and MD episodes have been associated with fluctuations in reproductive hormones amongst women. To investigate biological underpinnings of heterogeneity in MD, the associations between depression, stratified by sex and including perinatal depression (PND), and blood biomarkers, using UK Biobank (UKB) data, were evaluated, and extended to include the association of depression with biomarker polygenic scores (PGS), generated as proxy for each biomarker. Method: Using female (N = 39,761) and male (N = 38,821) UKB participants, lifetime MD and PND were tested for association with 28 blood biomarkers. A GWAS was conducted for each biomarker and genetic correlations with depression subgroups were estimated. Using independent data from the Australian Genetics of Depression Study, PGS were constructed for each biomarker, and tested for association with depression status (n [female cases/controls] = 9,006/6,442; n [male cases/controls] = 3,106/6,222). Regions of significant local genetic correlation between depression subgroups and biomarkers highlighted by the PGS analysis were identified. Results: Depression in females was significantly associated with levels of twelve biomarkers, including total protein (OR = 0.90, CI = [0.86, 0.94], p = 3.9 × 10-6) and vitamin D (OR = 0.94, CI = [0.90, 0.97], p = 2.6 × 10-4), and PND with five biomarker levels, also including total protein (OR = 0.88, CI = [0.81, 0.96], p = 4.7 × 10-3). Depression in males was significantly associated with levels of eleven biomarkers. In the independent Australian Genetics of Depression Study, PGS analysis found significant associations for female depression and PND with total protein (female depression: OR = 0.93, CI = [0.88, 0.98], p = 3.6 × 10-3; PND: OR = 0.91, CI = [0.86, 0.96], p = 1.1 × 10-3), as well as with vitamin D (female depression: OR = 0.93, CI = [0.89, 0.97], p = 2.0 × 10-3; PND: OR = 0.92, CI = [0.87, 0.97], p = 1.4 × 10-3). The male depression sample did not report any significant results, and the point estimate of total protein (OR = 0.98, CI = [0.92-1.04], p = 4.7 × 10-1) did not indicate any association. Local genetic correlation analysis highlighted significant genetic correlation between PND and total protein, located in 5q13.3 (rG = 0.68, CI = [0.33, 1.0], p = 3.6 × 10-4). Discussion and Conclusion: Multiple lines of evidence from genetic analysis highlight an association between total serum protein levels and depression in females. Further research involving prospective measurement of total protein and depressive symptoms is warranted.

Genetic predisposition to childhood obesity does not influence the risk of developing skin cancer in adulthood.

The relationship between body mass index (BMI) and melanoma and other skin cancers remains unclear. The objective of this study was to employ the Mendelian randomization (MR) approach to evaluate the effects of genetically predicted childhood adiposity on the risk of developing skin cancer later in life. Two-sample MR analyses were conducted using summary data from genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analyses of childhood BMI, melanoma, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC). We used the inverse-variance-weighted (IVW) methods to obtain a pooled estimate across all genetic variants for childhood BMI. We performed multiple sensitivity analyses to evaluate the potential influence of various assumptions on our findings. We found no evidence that genetically predicted childhood BMI was associated with risks of developing melanoma, cSCC, or BCC in adulthood (OR, 95% CI: melanoma: 1.02 (0.93-1.13), cSCC 0.94 (0.79-1.11), BCC 0.97 (0.84-1.12)). Our findings do not support the conclusions from observational studies that childhood BMI is associated with increased risks of melanoma, cSCC, or BCC in adulthood. Intervening on childhood adiposity will not reduce the risk of common skin cancers later in life.

The effect of three years of vitamin D supplementation on erectile dysfunction: Results from the randomized placebo-controlled D-Health Trial.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Erectile dysfunction is common among older men and has been associated with low serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D concentration. However, this association may be due to uncontrolled confounding, and there is a paucity of evidence from interventional studies. We aimed to examine the effect of vitamin D supplementation on the prevalence of erectile dysfunction, in an exploratory analysis using data from a large randomized controlled trial. METHODS: The D-Health Trial recruited Australians aged 60-84 years between January 2014 and May 2015 and randomly assigned them to supplementation with 60,000 IU of vitamin D or placebo per month for up to 5 years. Blood samples were collected annually from randomly selected participants (total N = 3943). We assessed erectile dysfunction at the end of the third year of follow-up. We used log-binomial regression to examine the effect of vitamin D on the prevalence of erectile dysfunction overall, and within sub-groups. RESULTS: Of the 11,530 men enrolled, 8920 (77.4 %) completed the erectile dysfunction question and were included in the analysis. After three years of supplementation, the mean serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D concentration was 76 nmol/L (standard deviation (SD) 24.94) in the placebo group and 106 nmol/L (SD 26.76) in the vitamin D group (p < 0.0001). The prevalence of erectile dysfunction was 58.8 % and 59.0 % in the vitamin D and placebo groups, respectively (prevalence ratio 1.00, 95 % CI 0.97, 1.03); there was no evidence of an effect of vitamin D in any subgroup analyses. CONCLUSION: Supplementing older men with vitamin D is unlikely to prevent or improve erectile dysfunction. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRY: (ACTRN12613000743763).

Genetic Analysis of Perceived Youthfulness Reveals Differences in How Men's and Women's Age Is Assessed.

Skin aging is a natural process that occurs over time but can be accelerated by sun exposure. Measuring skin age in a large population can provide insight into the extent of skin damage from sun exposure and skin cancer risk. Understanding the genetics of skin aging, within and across sexes (males and females), could improve our understanding of the genetic drivers of both skin aging and skin cancer. We used UK Biobank data to examine the genetic overlap between perceived youthfulness and traits relevant to actinic photoaging. Our GWAS identified 22 genome-wide significant loci for women and 43 for men. The genetic correlation (rg) between perceived youthfulness in men and women was significantly less than unity (rg = 0.75, 95% confidence interval = 0.69-0.80), suggesting a gene-by-sex interaction. In women, perceived youthfulness was modestly correlated with keratinocyte cancer (rg = -0.19) and skin tanning (rg = 0.18). In men, perceived youthfulness was correlated with male-pattern baldness (rg = -0.23). This suggests that the genetic architecture of perceived youthfulness may differ between sexes, with genes influencing skin tanning and skin cancer susceptibility driving the difference in women, whereas genes influencing male-pattern baldness and other puberty-related traits drive the difference in men. We recommend that future genetic analysis of skin aging include a sex-stratified component.

Balancing the risks and benefits of sun exposure: A revised position statement for Australian adults.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the development of a new position statement regarding balancing the risks and benefits of sun exposure for Australian adults. METHODS: We conducted a Sun Exposure Summit in March 2021, with presentations from invited experts and a workshop including representation from academic, clinical, policy, and patient stakeholder organisations. The group considered advice about balancing the risks and benefits of sun exposure for Australian adults and developed a revised consensus position statement. RESULTS: The balance of risks and benefits of sun exposure is not the same for everybody. For people at very high risk of skin cancer, the risks of exposure likely outweigh the benefits; sun protection is essential. Conversely, people with deeply pigmented skin are at low risk of skin cancer but at high risk of vitamin D deficiency; routine sun protection is not recommended. For those at intermediate risk of skin cancer, sun protection remains a priority, but individuals may obtain sufficient sun exposure to maintain adequate vitamin D status. CONCLUSIONS: The new position statement provides sun exposure advice that explicitly recognises the differing needs of Australia's diverse population. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Mass communication campaigns should retain the focus on skin cancer prevention. The new position statement will support the delivery of personalised advice.

Genome-wide association study meta-analysis of dizygotic twinning illuminates genetic regulation of female fecundity.

STUDY QUESTION: Which genetic factors regulate female propensity for giving birth to spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twins? SUMMARY ANSWER: We identified four new loci, GNRH1, FSHR, ZFPM1, and IPO8, in addition to previously identified loci, FSHB and SMAD3. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The propensity to give birth to DZ twins runs in families. Earlier, we reported that FSHB and SMAD3 as associated with DZ twinning and female fertility measures. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis (GWAMA) of mothers of spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twins (8265 cases, 264 567 controls) and of independent DZ twin offspring (26 252 cases, 417 433 controls). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Over 700 000 mothers of DZ twins, twin individuals and singletons from large cohorts in Australia/New Zealand, Europe, and the USA were carefully screened to exclude twins born after use of ARTs. Genetic association analyses by cohort were followed by meta-analysis, phenome wide association studies (PheWAS), in silico and in vivo annotations, and Zebrafish functional validation. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: This study enlarges the sample size considerably from previous efforts, finding four genome-wide significant loci, including two novel signals and a further two novel genes that are implicated by gene level enrichment analyses. The novel loci, GNRH1 and FSHR, have well-established roles in female reproduction whereas ZFPM1 and IPO8 have not previously been implicated in female fertility. We found significant genetic correlations with multiple aspects of female reproduction and body size as well as evidence for significant selection against DZ twinning during human evolution. The 26 top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from our GWAMA in European-origin participants weakly predicted the crude twinning rates in 47 non-European populations (r = 0.23 between risk score and population prevalence, s.e. 0.11, 1-tail P = 0.058) indicating that genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are needed in African and Asian populations to explore the causes of their respectively high and low DZ twinning rates. In vivo functional tests in zebrafish for IPO8 validated its essential role in female, but not male, fertility. In most regions, risk SNPs linked to known expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs). Top SNPs were associated with in vivo reproductive hormone levels with the top pathways including hormone ligand binding receptors and the ovulation cycle. LARGE SCALE DATA: The full DZT GWAS summary statistics will made available after publication through the GWAS catalog (https://www.ebi.ac.uk/gwas/). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Our study only included European ancestry cohorts. Inclusion of data from Africa (with the highest twining rate) and Asia (with the lowest rate) would illuminate further the biology of twinning and female fertility. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: About one in 40 babies born in the world is a twin and there is much speculation on why twinning runs in families. We hope our results will inform investigations of ovarian response in new and existing ARTs and the causes of female infertility. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): Support for the Netherlands Twin Register came from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMW) grants, 904-61-193, 480-04-004, 400-05-717, Addiction-31160008, 911-09-032, Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI.NL, 184.021.007), Royal Netherlands Academy of Science Professor Award (PAH/6635) to DIB, European Research Council (ERC-230374), Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06), the Avera Institute, Sioux Falls, South Dakota (USA) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH R01 HD042157-01A1) and the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health and Grand Opportunity grants 1RC2 MH089951. The QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute (QIMR) study was supported by grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (241944, 339462, 389927, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389938, 443036, 442915, 442981, 496610, 496739, 552485, 552498, 1050208, 1075175). L.Y. is funded by Australian Research Council (Grant number DE200100425). The Minnesota Center for Twin and Family Research (MCTFR) was supported in part by USPHS Grants from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (AA09367 and AA11886) and the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA05147, DA13240, and DA024417). The Women's Genome Health Study (WGHS) was funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (HL043851 and HL080467) and the National Cancer Institute (CA047988 and UM1CA182913), with support for genotyping provided by Amgen. Data collection in the Finnish Twin Registry has been supported by the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, the Broad Institute, ENGAGE-European Network for Genetic and Genomic Epidemiology, FP7-HEALTH-F4-2007, grant agreement number 201413, National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (grants AA-12502, AA-00145, AA-09203, AA15416, and K02AA018755) and the Academy of Finland (grants 100499, 205585, 118555, 141054, 264146, 308248, 312073 and 336823 to J. Kaprio). TwinsUK is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Versus Arthritis, European Union Horizon 2020, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Clinical Research Network (CRN) and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King's College London. For NESDA, funding was obtained from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (Geestkracht program grant 10000-1002), the Center for Medical Systems Biology (CSMB, NVVO Genomics), Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI-NL), VU University's Institutes for Health and Care Research (EMGO+) and Neuroscience Campus Amsterdam, University Medical Center Groningen, Leiden University Medical Center, National Institutes of Health (NIH, ROI D0042157-01A, MH081802, Grand Opportunity grants 1 RC2 Ml-1089951 and IRC2 MH089995). Part of the genotyping and analyses were funded by the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health. Computing was supported by BiG Grid, the Dutch e-Science Grid, which is financially supported by NWO. Work in the Del Bene lab was supported by the Programme Investissements d'Avenir IHU FOReSIGHT (ANR-18-IAHU-01). C.R. was supported by an EU Horizon 2020 Marie Sklodowska-Curie Action fellowship (H2020-MSCA-IF-2014 #661527). H.S. and K.S. are employees of deCODE Genetics/Amgen. The other authors declare no competing financial interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

GWAS of Dizygotic Twinning in an Enlarged Australian Sample of Mothers of DZ Twins.

Female fertility is a complex trait with age-specific changes in spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twinning and fertility. To elucidate factors regulating female fertility and infertility, we conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) on mothers of spontaneous DZ twins (MoDZT) versus controls (3273 cases, 24,009 controls). This is a follow-up study to the Australia/New Zealand (ANZ) component of that previously reported (Mbarek et al., 2016), with a sample size almost twice that of the entire discovery sample meta-analysed in the previous article (and five times the ANZ contribution to that), resulting from newly available additional genotyping and representing a significant increase in power. We compare analyses with and without male controls and show unequivocally that it is better to include male controls who have been screened for recent family history, than to use only female controls. Results from the SNP based GWAS identified four genomewide significant signals, including one novel region, ZFPM1 (Zinc Finger Protein, FOG Family Member 1), on chromosome 16. Previous signals near FSHB (Follicle Stimulating Hormone beta subunit) and SMAD3 (SMAD Family Member 3) were also replicated (Mbarek et al., 2016). We also ran the GWAS with a dominance model that identified a further locus ADRB2 on chr 5. These results have been contributed to the International Twinning Genetics Consortium for inclusion in the next GWAS meta-analysis (Mbarek et al., in press).

International patterns and trends in the incidence of melanoma and cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, 1989-2020.

BACKGROUND: Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) and melanoma have different associations with sun exposure, so comparing the trends in incidence rates of the two different cancers may provide insights into changing patterns of exposure to ultraviolet radiation. METHODS: We compared trends in the incidence of cSCC and melanoma in seven susceptible populations residing at mid-to-high latitudes: Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Scotland, the Netherlands and Tasmania (Australia). We fitted Joinpoint models to describe trends in age-standardized incidence rates for melanoma and cSCC and calculated the average annual percentage rate of change for the period 1989-2020 (1989-2018 for Tasmania). We calculated the incident rate ratio as the ratio of the age-standardized rates (European Standard Population) for cSCC to melanoma and conducted age-period-cohort modelling to compare age, period, and cohort effects. RESULTS: The ratio of cSCC-to-melanoma incidence increased with proximity to the equator and over time. In the most recent time period, the incidence of cSCC was higher than the incidence of melanoma for men and women in all seven populations. While the ratio of cSCC-to-melanoma incidence was higher for men compared with women, in most countries the cSCC-to-melanoma IRR increased over time to a greater extent in women compared with men. Melanoma incidence was higher among younger people and cSCC incidence was higher among older people; the age at which the incidence of cSCC overtook incidence of melanoma was progressively younger with proximity to the equator. CONCLUSIONS: Despite concerted international efforts to preserve the ozone layer over the past four decades resulting in significant reductions in surface UV-B at mid-latitudes, the incidence of skin cancer, particularly cSCC, continues to rise in those regions. Our findings are consistent with a stronger association with age-associated cumulative sun exposure for cSCC compared with melanoma, and suggest that women are receiving greater UV radiation exposure in recent decades than in the past.

Comparative age-period-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Cancer surveillance researchers analyze incidence or mortality rates jointly indexed by age group and calendar period using age-period-cohort models. Many studies consider age- and period-specific rates in two or more strata defined by sex, race/ethnicity, etc. A comprehensive characterization of trends and patterns within each stratum can be obtained using age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions (EF). However, currently available approaches for joint analysis and synthesis of EF are limited. METHODS: We develop a new method called Comparative Age-Period-Cohort Analysis to quantify similarities and differences of EF across strata. Comparative Analysis identifies whether the stratum-specific hazard rates are proportional by age, period, or cohort. RESULTS: Proportionality imposes natural constraints on the EF that can be exploited to gain efficiency and simplify the interpretation of the data. Comparative Analysis can also identify differences or diversity in proportional relationships between subsets of strata ("pattern heterogeneity"). We present three examples using cancer incidence from the United States Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program: non-malignant meningioma by sex; multiple myeloma among men stratified by race/ethnicity; and in situ melanoma by anatomic site among white women. CONCLUSIONS: For studies of cancer rates with from two through to around 10 strata, which covers many outstanding questions in cancer surveillance research, our new method provides a comprehensive, coherent, and reproducible approach for joint analysis and synthesis of age-period-cohort estimable functions.

Uncovering the complex relationship between balding, testosterone and skin cancers in men.

Male-pattern baldness (MPB) is related to dysregulation of androgens such as testosterone. A previously observed relationship between MPB and skin cancer may be due to greater exposure to ultraviolet radiation or indicate a role for androgenic pathways in the pathogenesis of skin cancers. We dissected this relationship via Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses, using genetic data from recent male-only meta-analyses of cutaneous melanoma (12,232 cases; 20,566 controls) and keratinocyte cancers (KCs) (up to 17,512 cases; >100,000 controls), followed by stratified MR analysis by body-sites. We found strong associations between MPB and the risk of KC, but not with androgens, and multivariable models revealed that this relationship was heavily confounded by MPB single nucleotide polymorphisms involved in pigmentation pathways. Site-stratified MR analyses revealed strong associations between MPB with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma and melanoma, suggesting that sun exposure on the scalp, rather than androgens, is the main driver. Men with less hair covering likely explains, at least in part, the higher incidence of melanoma in men residing in countries with high ambient UV.

Genetic variants for smoking behaviour and risk of skin cancer.

Observational studies have suggested that smoking may increase the risk of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) while decreasing the risks of basal cell carcinoma (BCC), and melanoma. However, it remains possible that confounding by other factors may explain these associations. The aim of this investigation was to use Mendelian randomization (MR) to test whether smoking is associated with skin cancer, independently of other factors. Two-sample MR analyses were conducted to determine the causal effect of smoking measures on skin cancer risk using genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics. We used the inverse-variance-weighted estimator to derive separate risk estimates across genetic instruments for all smoking measures. A genetic predisposition to smoking initiation was associated with lower risks of all skin cancer types, although none of the effect estimates reached statistical significance (OR 95% CI BCC 0.91, 0.82-1.01; cSCC 0.82, 0.66-1.01; melanoma 0.91, 0.82-1.01). Results for other measures were similar to smoking initiation with the exception of smoking intensity which was associated with a significantly reduced risk of melanoma (OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.51-0.89). Our findings support the findings of observational studies linking smoking to lower risks of melanoma and BCC. However, we found no evidence that smoking is associated with an elevated risk of cSCC; indeed, our results are most consistent with a decreased risk, similar to BCC and melanoma.

Health care service use by people diagnosed with invasive melanoma in Queensland: a benefit incidence analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify differences, by residential remoteness and socio-economic status, in health care service use by people diagnosed with invasive melanoma in Queensland. DESIGN: Benefit incidence analysis of CancerCostMod data, comprising Queensland Cancer Registry data linked with Queensland Hospital Admitted Patient Data Collection (QHAPDC), Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS), and Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) data. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Adults (18 years or older) newly diagnosed with invasive melanoma in Queensland during 1 July 2011 - 31 June 2015 and alive three years after diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Concentration curves and indices quantifying differences by residential postcode-based remoteness (Australian Statistical Geography Standard - Remoteness Area) and socio-economic disadvantage (Index of Relative Socioeconomic Disadvantage) in hospital admissions (overall and by type) and use of MBS (overall and by type) and PBS services during the three years following diagnosis of invasive melanoma. RESULTS: A total of 13 145 adults diagnosed with invasive melanoma during 2011-15 were alive three years after the diagnosis. Public hospital admissions were more frequent for people living in areas of greater socio-economic disadvantage (concentration index, -0.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.19 to -0.12) or outside major cities (concentration index, -0.10; 95% CI, -0.13 to -0.06); private hospital admissions (concentration index, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.07-0.15) and specialist consultations (concentration index, 0.08; 95% CI, 0.07-0.10) were more frequent in areas of lesser disadvantage and in major cities (private hospital admissions: 0.10; 95% CI, 0.06-0.13; specialist services: 0.07; 95% CI, 0.06-0.09). Differences in other melanoma health care service use by residential remoteness and socio-economic disadvantage were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Variation in health care service use by Queenslanders with primary diagnoses of invasive melanoma by residential socio-economic disadvantage and remoteness were generally minor. Our analysis suggests that access to health care for people with melanoma is fairly equitable in Queensland.

Does genetic risk modify the effect of skin screening on melanoma detection rates?

BACKGROUND: Skin screening is associated with higher melanoma detection rates, a potential indicator of overdiagnosis, but it remains possible that this effect is due to confounding by genetic risk. OBJECTIVES: To compare melanoma incidence among screened vs. unscreened participants within tertiles of genetic risk. METHODS: We investigated melanoma incidence in the QSkin study, a prospective cohort study which for this analysis comprised 15 283 participants aged 40-69 years with genotype data and no prior history of melanoma. We calculated a polygenic score (PGS) for melanoma. We first calculated the age-standardized rate (ASR) of melanoma within PGS tertiles, and then measured the association between skin examination and melanoma detection by calculating the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI), overall and within PGS tertiles. RESULTS: Melanoma incidence increased with PGS (ASR per 100 000 per year): tertile 1 = 442; tertile 2 = 519; tertile 3 = 871. We found that the HRs for all melanomas (i.e. in situ and invasive) associated with skin examination differed slightly across PGS tertiles [age- and sex-adjusted tertile 1 HR 1.88 (95% CI 1.26-2.81); tertile 2 HR 1.70 (95% CI 1.20-2.41); tertile 3 HR 1.96 (95% CI 1.43-2.70); fully adjusted tertile 1 HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.74-1.75); tertile 2 HR 1.21 (95% CI 0.82-1.78); tertile 3 HR 1.41 (95% CI 1.00-1.98)], but these differences were not statistically significant. HRs for in situ melanoma associated with skin examination were similar across PGS tertiles. For invasive melanomas, the point estimates appeared to be highest in PGS tertile 3 in both the minimally adjusted (age, sex) and fully adjusted models; however, these apparent differences were also not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic risk predicts subsequent melanoma incidence, and is weakly associated with screening behaviour, but it does not explain the higher rate of melanoma detection between screened and unscreened people.

The Effect of Vitamin D Supplementation on Hypothyroidism in the Randomized Controlled D-Health Trial.

Background: Hypothyroidism is common, and in iodine-sufficient areas, it is primarily caused by autoimmune destruction of the thyroid gland. Observational studies have consistently shown an inverse association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration and autoimmune diseases; however, there is a lack of evidence from randomized controlled trials to support a benefit of vitamin D supplementation, particularly for autoimmune thyroid diseases. We, therefore, aimed to assess the effect of vitamin D supplementation on the incidence of hypothyroidism. Methods: We analyzed data from the D-Health Trial (n = 21,315), a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial of 60,000 international units per month of supplemental vitamin D3 among Australians aged 60 years and over. Hypothyroidism, a tertiary outcome of the D-Health Trial, was defined by treatment with levothyroxine, ascertained through linkage with the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. The outcome was time to first prescription of levothyroxine. We began follow-up at 12 months after randomization; people who had died or who had been dispensed levothyroxine during the first year were excluded. Flexible parametric survival models were used to assess the effect of vitamin D supplementation on hypothyroidism, overall and within strata defined by age, sex, body mass index, and predicted baseline vitamin D status. Results: We included 17,851 participants in the main analysis (vitamin D = 8939; placebo = 8912). During a median follow-up of 4.1 years (interquartile range 4.1-4.1), 293 participants developed hypothyroidism (vitamin D = 138 [1.5%]; placebo = 155 [1.7%]). Vitamin D supplementation did not significantly reduce the incidence of hypothyroidism (overall hazard ratio [HR] 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71-1.12). There was some suggestion of an effect in females (overall HR 0.78; CI 0.58-1.06) but not in males (overall HR 1.06; CI 0.74-1.50; p interaction 0.20). Conclusions: Vitamin D supplementation did not reduce the incidence of hypothyroidism overall; however, the possible beneficial effect observed in females warrants further investigation. Clinical Trial Registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12613000743763.

The effect of vitamin D supplementation on the gut microbiome in older Australians - Results from analyses of the D-Health Trial.

Observational studies suggest a link between vitamin D and the composition of the gut microbiome, but there is little evidence from randomized controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation. We analyzed data from the D-Health Trial, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. We recruited 21,315 Australians aged 60-84 y and randomized them to 60,000 IU of vitamin D3 or placebo monthly for 5 y. Stool samples were collected from a sample of 835 participants (417 in the placebo and 418 in the vitamin D group) approximately 5 y after randomization. We characterized the gut microbiome using 16S rRNA gene sequencing. We used linear regression to compare alpha diversity indices (i.e. Shannon index (primary outcome), richness, inverse Simpson index), and the ratio of Firmicutes to Bacteroidetes between the two groups. We analyzed between-sample (beta) diversity (i.e. Bray Curtis distance and UniFrac index) using principal coordinate analysis and used PERMANOVA to test for significant clustering according to randomization group. We also assessed the difference in the abundance of the 20 most abundant genera between the two groups using negative binomial regression model with adjustment for multiple testing. Approximately half the participants included in this analysis were women (mean age 69.4 y). Vitamin D supplementation did not alter the Shannon diversity index (mean 3.51 versus 3.52 in the placebo and vitamin D groups, respectively, p = 0.50). Similarly, there was little difference between the groups for other alpha diversity indices, the abundance of different genera, and the Firmicutes-to-Bacteroidetes ratio. We did not observe clustering of bacterial communities according to randomization group. In conlusion, monthly doses of 60,000 IU of vitamin D supplementation for 5 y did not alter the composition of the gut microbiome in older Australians.

Vitamin D supplementation and major cardiovascular events: D-Health randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether supplementing older adults with monthly doses of vitamin D alters the incidence of major cardiovascular events. DESIGN: Randomised, double blind, placebo controlled trial of monthly vitamin D (the D-Health Trial). Computer generated permuted block randomisation was used to allocate treatments. SETTING: Australia from 2014 to 2020. PARTICIPANTS: 21 315 participants aged 60-84 years at enrolment. Exclusion criteria were self-reported hypercalcaemia, hyperparathyroidism, kidney stones, osteomalacia, sarcoidosis, taking >500 IU/day supplemental vitamin D, or unable to give consent because of language or cognitive impairment. INTERVENTION: 60 000 IU/month vitamin D3 (n=10 662) or placebo (n=10 653) taken orally for up to five years. 16 882 participants completed the intervention period: placebo 8270 (77.6%); vitamin D 8552 (80.2%). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome for this analysis was the occurrence of a major cardiovascular event, including myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary revascularisation, determined through linkage with administrative datasets. Each event was analysed separately as secondary outcomes. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: 21 302 people were included in the analysis. The median intervention period was five years. 1336 participants experienced a major cardiovascular event (placebo 699 (6.6%); vitamin D 637 (6.0%)). The rate of major cardiovascular events was lower in the vitamin D group than in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 1.01), especially among those who were taking cardiovascular drugs at baseline (0.84, 0.74 to 0.97; P for interaction=0.12), although the P value for interaction was not significant (<0.05). Overall, the difference in standardised cause specific cumulative incidence at five years was -5.8 events per 1000 participants (95% confidence interval -12.2 to 0.5 per 1000 participants), resulting in a number needed to treat to avoid one major cardiovascular event of 172. The rate of myocardial infarction (hazard ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 0.98) and coronary revascularisation (0.89, 0.78 to 1.01) was lower in the vitamin D group, but there was no difference in the rate of stroke (0.99, 0.80 to 1.23). CONCLUSIONS: Vitamin D supplementation might reduce the incidence of major cardiovascular events, although the absolute risk difference was small and the confidence interval was consistent with a null finding. These findings could prompt further evaluation of the role of vitamin D supplementation, particularly in people taking drugs for prevention or treatment of cardiovascular disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12613000743763.